Russian Ruble Looks Bullish Again in the Wake of Exporters’ Restrictions and October 27 Policy Meeting

On MoEx, the U.S. dollar, euro and Chinese yuan gained momentum in losing their strongholds after Russian authorities forced exporters to sell foreign currency proceeds and then released the parameters of relevant regulation. At this stage, the mandatory obligation to repatriate foreign trade revenue was imposed on all foreign subsidiaries of Russian exporters. The euro (EURRUB) has dived below Rub100 for the first time since September 12, while USD is easing towards Rub94, and the yuan is already below Rub13.

The legislation bill, like the namesake presidential decree, will be enacted until April 30, 2024. Among the provisions stipulated in the document, which were not disclosed earlier in the government commentary, one can highlight the two most prominent: first, the restrictions apply to subsidiaries of the companies from a precise list contained in the addendum to the bill, including those registered and domiciled abroad; second, the document fixes the possibility for an exporter to request an exemption by applying to a subcommittee of the government commission on foreign investment.

On October 27, the Central Bank will hold its next policy meeting. If CBR raises its key rate again, ruble will get even greater booster to strengthen actively. Most Fx analysts think, that ruble has not lost the momentum of strengthening. On Friday, the psychologically important level below 97 rubles per dollar temporarily crashed.