Preliminary Q3 U.S. GDP at +2.9 Percent vs. +2.7 Percent Expected

November 30, 2022

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Preliminary Q3 U.S. GDP at +2.9 Percent vs. +2.7 Percent Expected

U.S. equity futures mostly slightly advanced, with S&P 500 contracts gaining just 0.04% and Nasdaq Composite futures rising 0.11% as of 2:45 p.m. CET, reverting losses following a report on falling consumer confidence amid rising food and gas prices, and as the markets look ahead to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the November jobs report, coming later this week. Today will see the latest reading on Q3 GDP (+2.9% figure out against consensus of +2.7%) and the ADP's report on private-sector payrolls.

According to preliminary data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was at $99 billion in October. The previous month's revised trade deficit stood at $91.9 billion. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's chosen inflation gauge, will be released tomorrow, while the highly-anticipated employment report will be published on Friday (economists are looking for 200K new jobs and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%).

Meanwhile, heading off a U.S. nationwide strike by railroad workers, House of Representatives’ lawmakers today will take up legislation today to avert a work stoppage and prevent damage to the broader economy.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped to 100.2 from 102.2 in October, resulting in the lowest reading since July. The Present Situation Index, measuring opinions on current business and labor market conditions, dipped to 137.4 from 138.7. The Expectations Index, which tracks consumers’ short-term view of income, business, and labor market conditions, declined to 75.4 from 77.9.

Tech stocks tumbled yesterday. Apple (AAPL) shares fell to their lowest level since November 9 on continued concerns about iPhone production in China. Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Salesforce (CRM) all plunged. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL) dropped as an analyst said the provider of online payment services was losing market share to Apple Pay. Consumer staples stocks retreated as well, with shares of Hormel Foods (HRL), Hershey (HSY), and Clorox (CLX) heading lower.

Commoditywise, crude oil futures are regaining strength for a third day in a row, with a barrel of WTI oil trading around $80.71, up almost 3%. The commodity drew strength from indications from OPEC+ that it would stick to its decision to cut output. The European Union is set to discuss a full embargo on purchases of Moscow's seaborne crude. According to a recent Reuters poll, Brent oil prices will hold above the $100 level for the rest of 2022 as an impending EU ban on Russian oil sparks uncertainty over supply.

The European markets are trading higher and holding on to their gains in today’s session, as investors digested some positive data points from the region. Thus, Euro zone inflation eased more than expected in November, raising hopes that sky-high price growth is now past its peak and bolstering the case for a slowdown in European Central Bank rate hikes next month. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.72% at the time of writing. The German DAX index traded 0.27% higher, CAC 40 in France advanced by 0.81%, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.85%.

Swedish fashion giant H&M (HM-B.ST) became the first big European retailer to start layoffs by announcing 1,500 job cuts owing to softening demand as consumers cope with soaring inflation. Also, food delivery service DoorDash (DASH) announced earlier today that it is looking to cut about 1,250 jobs. The company will be left with approximately 7,350 employees, with the layoff reducing its workforce by 14.5%.

Elsewhere, the major Asia-Pacific markets ended higher amid hopes of Covid-19 easing in China. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped 2.2% to take November’s gain to 29%, its best for any month since late 2003. The benchmark Hang Seng Index surged almost 27%, the most since 1998. Stocks that benefit from a reopening jumped, including airlines, casinos and restaurant operators.